Even though nothing much came out of yesterday's meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas, the fact that the two sides showed up at all may give those who have not yet given up on a peace settlement something to hang hopes on. But it doesn't look or sound good. Abbas has for the most part reverted to the Arafat mean and can't or won't use his office to crack down on terror. Most telling of Abbas' craven attitude was that he insisted that he not be photographed with any Israeli flags present. If this is indicative of the level of negotiations, there may be no real hope left.
Israel and the PA are at a stage where Abbas wants more gestures to enable him to fight terror while Israel wants to see some concrete action before making any more concessions.
The PA chairman expressed it well when he said, "You don't give me anything, because there is terror, and I can't do anything against terror because you don't give me anything." Sharon rejected the arguments of his guest, accusing him of whining. "You are stronger than you make yourself out to be," he said. Sharon's message to Abbas was "don't say you are weak, because in the end people will believe you." Sharon's aides were even more frank. They said the weaker Abbas gets, the harder it will be to shore him up. "What is he telling us? I am pitiable, I can't promise security, strengthen me," a senior source said.
Israeli officials are asking what the point is of strengthening a person who can't exert control, and whose weakness is immediately translated into a rise in terror. One official believes that Abbas' decision to delay the parliamentary elections symbolizes his weakness more than anything else. If he thought he would win, he would hold the elections on time. A person who is afraid to lose avoids the contest.
The Israelis have agreed to gestures that would not pose security risks, while Abbas is pushing for goods coming into the Ashdod port to be trucked directly to Gaza. This would help the Palestinian economy, but Israel is not likely to allow only Palestinian inspection of the cargo.
This may all be moot, as the Bush Administration is coming to the conclusion that Abbas is a lost cause and may not be worth the effort even if he survives. What does that leave? Richard Chesnoff says that this opens up the possibility that the White House may be looking in a surprising direction:
You could almost hear the deep sigh of relief from the White House yesterday when Israeli leader Ariel Sharon and his Palestinian counterpart Mahmoud Abbas finally sat down for their first face to face in five months. But relief alone isn't enough, and there's growing talk that the Bush administration, impatient over lack of visible movement toward an Israeli-Palestinian peace settlement, may soon trash longstanding American policy and authorize limited U.S. diplomatic contact with Abbas' chief rival and Israel's worst enemy: the Islamic terrorist organization known as Hamas.
Talk about potential disasters!
This extremely dangerous diplomatic turn may be precipitated in part by growing fear in the administration that Yasser Arafat's heir doesn't have the stuff needed to make peace happen and by frustration with Sharon's internal political woes.
It's also hard for both President Bush and Secretary of State Rice to ignore hard facts on the West Bank/Gaza ground. Abbas' PLO Fatah organization remains racked by corruption and ineffectiveness. The PLO continues to lose popularity while Hamas gains. During recent Palestinian municipal elections, the group campaigned on a clean government platform and won nearly half of the municipal councils at stake!
This would be a massive mistake and could actually drive the dagger deeper into Abbas' side. Hamas is still, and for all we know will always be, a terror group which has as a stated purpose the destruction of Israel. Opening negotiations before Hamas renounces terror and demonstrates its ability to uphold peaceful intentions (which would include the recognition of Israel's right to exist) would only serve to reward the terror organization for years of murder.
In reaction to a security sweep by Israeli forces ahead of the meeting, Hamas in Gaza said that, "a declaration of an end to calm could be made at any moment". That statement illustrates the predicament in which Abbas finds himself. He really has no control, if he ever had any.
So we are at an impasse. Israeli support may give Abbas some time, but may in the end prove to have been wasted. Yet he grows weaker each day that the stalemate continues. Abbas wants something that Sharon can't give and Sharon wants something that Abbas doesn't have.
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