Leonid Nevzlin, a former top top shareholder in the Russian Oil Giant Yukos said in an interview predicted a Russian revolution will take place after Belarus. Which should come as a welcome message to Vladimir Putin, considering the current state of affairs in Belarus.
He said Russian power becomes weaker. It bases on two people’s feelings — almost religious respect towards those who rule, and fear. Both feelings have already been fully exploited, mostly the second one because the political power is now held by prosecutor who acts in the Kremlin’s interests, Nevzlin said in an interview to the Russian Newsweek magazine. It would be difficult for the authorities to find a new “successor” as Putin was to Yeltsin in 2000. “Any player of the political market can win over any successor of Putin’s circle. It may be seen as it happened in Georgia, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, Abkhazia.” Revolutions that took place in former Soviet republics reflect an “objective tendency. Sooner or later, it will occur in Russia too. I think, it will happen after Belarus. There, everything is predetermined,” Nevzlin said.
This is just the kind of talk that gets under Putin's skin and causes him to turn on ex-allies like Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the former president of Yukos and now the target of the Russian government's ire. In related news, Yukos ex-security chief Alexei Pichugen was sentenced to 20 years in prison on a double murder charge although no bodies have been found. This is seen as the first step in the government's effort to put Khodorkovsky and Nevzlin away.
The concern for Russia is in evidence among government officials who are in Putin's sphere and would like to stay there. But the rumored crack up has manifested itself in some odd behavior. Dmitry Medvedev, Putin's chief of staff, himself warned yesterday that infighting among the ruling elite might lead to the breakup of what's left of the country.
In the interview published in the magazine Expert, Medvedev said infighting among politicians may cause Russia to collapse, leading to "horrible consequences" and making the 1991 breakup of the Soviet Union seem like a "kindergarten party."
"If we do not manage to consolidate elites, Russia may disappear as a unified state," Medvedev was quoted as saying. "And then everybody will be in trouble, including our immediate and distant neighbors."
Although this sounds portentous, the claim was made on the nightly news on state-run television, leading some experts to speculate that the performance was a way of instilling a bit of fear into the population and portraying Putin as the only person capable of holding the country together. In other words, Putin is saying that if he goes, Russia goes. This can only be seen as a way of dissuading any popular movements in Russia that may have taken inspiration from revolutions in Ukraine, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan and want some home-grown freedoms of their own.
Nikolai Petrov, a political analyst at the Carnegie Moscow Center, said Medvedev was trying to shift attention away from the Kremlin's unfilled promises — increased economic growth, foremost among them.
"The idea is that we must forget about all the promises that have been made — including the president's goal of doubling the GDP — and concentrate on preserving what we have," Petrov said.
Medvedev's statements were a "scream for help" by a Kremlin weakened by recent embarrassments in foreign and domestic policy, he said.
Meanwhile, Russian bombers made their first post-Soviet landing in Belarus today, purported to be testing the CIS air defense system.
This all comes as President Bush readies for a European trip in May. On route to Russia, the president will attend talks with the presidents of Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania. He'll finish his trip with a visit to Tblisi and Georgian President Saakashvili.
The talks in Tblisi between Bush and President Mikhail Saakashvili of Georgia, centering on democracy, are another unpleasant event for Moscow. Bush will place special stress on support for democratic change on CIS [Community of Independent States] territory (which have recently taken a revolutionary turn). The official aim of Bush's visit to Georgia has been formulated as follows: "To underline his support for democracy, historic reform and the peaceful resolution of conflict."
"As the Washington Post notes, Bush's itinerary "was extended due to stops in two former Soviet republics that are opposed to Russian pressure. That should be seen as a personal signal to President Putin." The inclusion of Latvia and Georgia on this trip," The Post writes, "will most likely provoke Russian annoyance, but will also demonstrate the United States' concern over Moscow's attempts to exert influence over its former empire."
In the opinion of Sarah Mendelsohn, a senior research fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, "Putin's government is becoming increasingly closed, and we can imagine that Bush's itinerary will be met with great dissatisfaction in Moscow."
It can also be imagined that the Bush White House may no longer be preoccupied with Moscow. The president can see just as well as anybody else that eastern Europe is more and more looking westward. This may cause a rift in Russian-American relations, but it would be uncharacteristic for Bush not to push his advantage. If Russia truly is headed for some kind of break up, it would be wise policy to cultivate relations with the former vassals of the old regime.
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