From Michael Young:
Hezbollah has completely undermined that premise in the eyes of its fellow countrymen. There is little doubt that a majority of Lebanese--Christians, Druze, Sunni Muslims (particularly after the assassination of Rafik Hariri), and not a few Shiites (how I recall that the most violent postwar confrontations with Syria occurred between Syrian soldiers and Shiite soccer fans after matches in which Syrian and Lebanese teams competed)--want an end to Syrian domination. Today, the truth is clear: Hezbollah seeks to become the Praetorian Guard of a Syrian-dominated order in Lebanon for after Syrian soldiers withdraw. In that context, the killing of Hariri also becomes clearer: it was preparation for what Damascus understood would be an inevitable Syrian pullout, ensuring that a strong Sunni, with a national project for Lebanon (who could also have threatened the stability of the Alawite regime in Damascus), would be eliminated.
The flip side of that strategy is giving Hezbollah ever more power in a post-Syrian-withdrawal Lebanese state. That's perhaps why a senior Lebanese politician told me recently: "I do not consider it out of the question that Hezbollah played a role in the assassination of Hariri, on Syria's behalf."
Can such a plan work? I rather doubt it, given the anger of Syria's Lebanese adversaries and international wariness, but unless Hezbollah refuses to get further sucked into such a project, it will both lose its national credibility and might carry Lebanon into a period of prolonged crisis as the party tries to protect its gains. On top of this, fears in Riyadh, Amman and Cairo of a so-called "Shiite crescent" stretching from Iran and Iraq to Lebanon (via Syria and its support for Shiite Lebanese power), will make the Sunni Arab states redouble their efforts to undermine the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad. If that happens, where will Hezbollah be?
This comes via Tony, who says that despite the huge turn out, this was not a good day for Hizballah and adds:
The picture says it all. "No to foreign intervention" right next to the picture of the Syrian president! And the people know it. And the people know it. (And so does the US!)
Tony also posts the latest cover story from The Weekly Standard on Walid Jumblatt and offers some thoughts on Arab Nationalism.
For his part, Walid Jumblatt made some conciliatory remarks saying, "It is necessary and important to have a dialogue with Hizbullah and (we) wish they would join us, our ranks ... as defenders of Lebanon, a democratic Lebanon," while calling for a "clear-cut timetable" for Syrian withdrawal.
President Bush reiterated his demand for a complete Syrian pull out, saying that if Syrian does not do so, it risks further international isolation.
"The world community, including Russia and Germany and France and Saudi Arabia and the United States, has presented the Syrian government with one of those choices: to end its nearly 30-year occupation of Lebanon or become even more isolated from the world."
Bush did not say what isolation would mean although he had previously threatened to clamp a financial blockade against Syria, inviting the United Nations and the European Union to follow suit. He was clearly angry about the announcement by President Assad to redeploy Syrian forces in Lebanon by the end of March without setting a specific deadline for pulling out completely.
The tough talk is no doubt making some people nervous, while others are downright panicky. But Bush has the upper hand here and is playing the situation close to the vest. He has a hard time hiding his consternation, of course, but he has been able to round up some formidable allies to push for an exit by the Syrian regime. Some are saying that having 140,000 US troops next door is strengthening Bush's hand, and it certainly can be said that whe Assad made his now-famous "I am not Saddam" statement he was think about just these troops, but there would have to be a clear and brutal attack by Assad's regime for any military action to be countenanced.
Assad (or those around him at least) will try to get by with giving up as little as possible and his tactic of invoking Taif looks more like a face-saving move than an opening position. Maybe I am wishing for too much, but it is still entirely possible that this can turn into the beginning of the demise of the House of Assad.
We need to remind ourselves that when we talk and write about what's happening in Lebanon that the Syrian people have also suffered much under this despotic regime. Remember Hama and the massacre of an estimated 40,000 people at the hands of their own government. I will try to be more sensitive to referencing the Syrian Government rather than Syria in general.
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