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January 04, 2005

Comments

Maggie

The pattern seemed to be Russians (5 million) returned to the Motherland as independence spread in the Baltic states and other "satellites"....Russia is apparently suffering the same decline in population as is Europe. See Stromata link.

Do you think there would be a split in the Ukraine rather than Russians just leaving and going to Russia?

http://stromata.typepad.com/stromata_blog/2004/12/russia_wanes.html

Daniel

FWIW, I don't see a dramatic split in Ukraine because I don't see an overt muscular Russian influence. The amount of money and pressure expended by Putin in the Ukrainian elections dwarfed any aid that came from the west and still Yanukovych lost.

This is a much different world and different situation than Budapest in 1956. The Oranges, now that they've had a victory will bring out the tents again if they have to. And everybody has a digital camera and many have Internet hookups. And Putin isn't crazy.

Russia will continue to decline because now, after opening up the country, the infection that had been allowed to fester throughout the Cold War has come to the surface (how's that for tortures metaphor?). Is there a cure?

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